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It certainly should merit respect, since its 20th century performance has far outpaced gold. It’s volatility and superior fundamentals ought to make it much more attractive than gold.
The fact is, gold bugs (with their blind, monomaniacal devotion to gold) miss the point. They are so ideologically wedded to the yellow metal that they overlook both history and facts. It is not a monometallic gold standard that history overwhelmingly demonstrates, but bimetallism. Shortly after I wrote Silver Bonanza for Jim Blanchard in 1993 but before it had been published, Jim teased this gem out of Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman: “The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold.” (I remember it well because the statement struck Jim so strongly that he had it printed up on a sticker and inserted it on the flyleaf of the original 8-1/2 by 11 version.) Friedman was right, of course. For most of mankind throughout most of history, silver has been the much more important monetary metal, familiar as the metal of daily commerce. Gold was used only for very, very large payments, which most people make only rarely, if ever.
Both silver and gold are monetary metals, i.e., they both benefit from monetary demand. (Monetary demand is also called “investment” demand. It is demand for silver as silver, and as an ingredient making something.) Most analysts miss silver’s monetary demand because they focus on silver’s use in industry. Certainly, since silver was politically demonetized beginning in the mid 1870s a vast amount of purely monetary demand disappeared. Today, most silver is used in fabrication, roughly split three ways among silverware and jewellery, photographic, and other industrial uses. But when confidence in central bank issued fiat money begins to fade, when fear strikes investors’ hearts, they run not only to gold, but also to silver. Especially in America.
That demand profile makes monetary demand for silver more important, not less. Why? Because all of that monetary demand hits silver at the margin. Fundamental demand changes only slowly, but monetary demand comes out of nowhere, adding huge, insistent demand for silver at the margin. Because the silver market is so much smaller than the gold market, a new dollar invested in silver also has a much greater affect on the price. That makes silver more volatile than gold, which wears on your nerves but swells your profits.
Most fund managers won’t touch silver with a 10-foot pole. The reason? At around $9 billion, the size and liquidity of the silver market is roughly 20 times smaller than the gold market.
However, it might be a mistake to ignore silver. With supplies continuing to fall and demand continuing to rise, the metal could very well make a very dramatic move to the upside over the next three to six months – even if gold prices fall.
Then there’s Jim Rogers…
As recently as October, Rogers, founder of the Quantum Fund, suggested that the U.S. dollar will continue its decline and that hard assets like gold, silver and agricultural products represented good value in the upcoming inflationary environment.
Unlike gold, silver is used in more commercial and industrial applications. The list is extensive – electrical contacts, mirrors, jewelry, currency coins, photographic films and as a catalyst in many chemical reactions.
However, silver production is dropping. Much of it comes as a by-product of other mining and refining, primarily lead and zinc. But due to plummeting prices created by over-supply, many lead and zinc mines were mothballed back in 2008.
As a result, silver production stalled with lead and zinc – and inventories are now at historic lows.
That’s the supply side of the equation. But what about industrial demand?
In short, it continues to rise. So with silver supplies lagging, silver prices are likely to head in one direction: up.
Gold and silver are like blood brothers – generally in sync with each other and tending to move in the same direction.
The relationship is such that there’s even an indicator that measures it – the gold/silver ratio. Many investors use the ratio to spot extremes in the pricing of either precious metal, and to spot trends, whether up or down.
With gold at $1,191 and silver at $18.63, the ratio currently sits at 64:1 – well above its one-year low from September. But in 2008, the ratio hit 84:1 before retreating.
With individual investors and central banks still buying gold, its meteoric rise shows few signs of stopping… at least for now. As a result, the gold/silver ratio suggests that silver has some catching up to do.
Anda boleh membeli dengan nilai sekecil 50 gm. Kos penghantaran tambahan Semenanjung adalah seperti berikut: Nilai di bawah 500 gm Rm 12 Nilai 1 kg Rm 20 500gm berikutnya Rm 8 Sabah/ Serawak : Nilai di bawah 500 gm Rm 18 Nilai 1 kg Rm 30 500gm berikutnya Rm 12
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